Crypto Radar — May 16, 2026: BTC Falls to US$ 78.2K

Bitcoin Loses Strength on Saturday with Neutral RSI

Bitcoin closes the week at US$ 78,239, accumulating a 3.1% decline over the last seven days. Saturday, May 16, 2026, confirms the cautious tone dominating the market for weeks, with the fear and greed index marking 31 points — consolidated fear territory.

Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.2%, signaling that investors are migrating from altcoins to the main asset during moments of uncertainty. The total cryptocurrency market maintains US$ 2.60 trillion, but trading volume remains moderate at US$ 66.96 billion.

Bitcoin's technical scenario shows mixed signals. With RSI at 48.60, the asset is in a neutral zone — neither overbought nor oversold. The moving average structure, however, remains bearish: the SMA50 is 8% below the SMA200, a configuration that historically precedes prolonged downward movements.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is navigating between the SMA20 at US$ 79,311 and the SMA50 at US$ 75,199. This intermediate position indicates market indecision, but the critical 7-day support at US$ 78,257 was already tested today.

Immediate resistance is at US$ 82,146, the same level that has limited movement for a week. For bulls to regain control, they need to break through this ceiling with convincing volume. The 30-day support at US$ 73,856 remains the last line of defense before sharper declines.

Growing volatility in recent days suggests that a directional decision is near. Historically, when RSI remains neutral but moving averages are in a bearish configuration, the movement tends to be downward.

Ethereum Under Pressure with RSI at 34

Ethereum presents a more fragile picture than Bitcoin. Trading at US$ 2,182, ETH has accumulated a 6.4% decline in the week and operates below both the SMA20 and SMA50.

The RSI at 34.30 is approaching the oversold zone, traditionally seen as a buying opportunity. However, with the SMA50 13.6% below the SMA200, the bearish structure is even more pronounced than Bitcoin.

The current support of US$ 2,182 coincides with the 30-day floor, configuring a critical level. Loss of this level could accelerate the correction toward US$ 2,000. Resistance at US$ 2,369 remains the first hurdle for any recovery attempt.

Altcoins Overview

Among the main altcoins, H stands out with a 9.2% gain, followed by Chiliz (CHZ) with 6.3% and Cosmos (ATOM) with 6.2%. These isolated movements don't change the market's overall defensive sentiment.

On the downside, B leads losses with -11.7%, followed by Aerodrome (AERO) with -7.2% and World Liberty Financial (WLFI) with -7.1%. The pattern is clear: smaller tokens suffer amplified volatility.

Stablecoin Rates

Macro Scenario and News

According to CoinTelegraph, analysts identify potential "bear trap" with BTC passing through two-week lows below US$ 78 thousand. The theory suggests that declines in sideways markets frequently precede significant rallies.

On the institutional side, CoinDesk reports that crypto users are prioritizing high yields over protection, putting billions at risk of hacks. The recent US$ 10 million exploit on THORChain reinforces this concern, with the platform already launching a recovery portal for affected users.

The DeFi situation remains volatile following the US$ 293 million hack on KelpDAO, forcing the sector to mature its security practices. In parallel, liquidations of long positions reached US$ 500 million with Bitcoin's decline to US$ 78 thousand.

What to Watch Tomorrow

• Test of the US$ 78,257 support on Bitcoin — breakout could lead to US$ 73,856
• Ethereum RSI behavior — entry into oversold may attract buyers
• Trading volume on Sunday — typically lower, potentially amplifying movements
• Altcoins reaction if Bitcoin loses critical support
• Evolution of liquidations in the futures market

Also read on ON3X: "Crypto Radar — May 15, 2026: BTC Falls to US$ 78.9K" for additional context on the formation of this correction.