Radar Crypto — April 09, 2026: Extreme Fear with BTC at $71.1K

Radar Crypto — Thursday, 04/09/2026

Bitcoin holds $71,127 this Thursday, accumulating +2.5% in the week while the global market fluctuates around $2.42 trillion. The scenario is contradictory: the Fear and Greed index marks 12/100 (extreme fear), but prices don't give way. Ethereum tracks Bitcoin closely, maintaining stability while BTC dominance persists robust at 58.8%. What's happening? A classic battle between long-term bearish structure and short-term recovery attempts. Read the full analysis.

The divergence is clear: while extreme fear should push downward, large investors (according to yesterday's CoinDesk report) continue accumulating. Strategy just bought 13,927 bitcoins for $1 billion through STRC. That's no coincidence. It's smart positioning in a panic environment.

The Macroeconomic Scenario: Geopolitical Tension Pressures Oil

There's a detail crypto analysts are ignoring: oil surged 8% this week due to Iran tensions. When oil rises, inflation returns to the radar. When inflation threatens, risk appetite decreases — and Bitcoin suffers initially. But there's an inverse side: Fed with less room for rate cuts means a stronger dollar. Historically high DXY hurts Bitcoin in dollars, but protects investors in other currencies.

For Brazil, this means something different. With USD/BRL fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions, the cost of entry into Bitcoin in reais becomes more expensive. Drex and Pix continue enabling transfers, but the final price in reais reflects this exchange rate volatility. Brazilian investors planning medium-term entry should monitor both the dollar price and the exchange rate.

Bitcoin: RSI at 66 Warns — Caution Zone

Bitcoin has RSI(14) at 66.20, approaching overbought conditions (70+). This is a signal of pause, not immediate reversal. The price holds above SMA20 ($69,175) and SMA50 ($69,216), confirming a short-term bullish trend. But the structural problem persists: SMA50 is 21.1% below SMA200 ($87,678).

Translation: Bitcoin is in a technical recovery pattern (short term), but within a structural downtrend (long term). Important support at $70,757 (7 days) holds. If that breaks, $65,970 (30-day support) becomes the battlefield. Resistance at $73,054. Breaking this is necessary for a more aggressive rally.

An important detail from today's news: RAVE surged 266.3%, signaling extreme speculation in altcoins. This is classic in extreme fear markets — when Bitcoin is rangebound, money flows to lower-risk assets, creating bubbles in smaller tokens. Historical pattern says this precedes correction. Smart money knows that.

Ethereum: Following Bitcoin, But With Technical Divergence

Ethereum at $2,194 with virtually flat performance in 24h (+0.0%), but +2.4% in 7 days — tracking Bitcoin closely. RSI at 63.50 also approaches overbought, a direct parallel with BTC. The structural difference is more severe: SMA50 ($2,085) is 28.3% below SMA200 ($2,909). Ethereum has a larger gap to fill than Bitcoin.

Critical support at $2,189 (7 days) is already very close to current price — any bleed passes to $1,983 quickly. Resistance at $2,285 is the next test. Volume stays stable, with no panic selling, which is a good technical sign.

News about security — AI agents and exposed wallets, according to CoinDesk — also affects sentiment in ETH. Ethereum is the preferred network for smart contracts and agents, so vulnerabilities here weigh more than on other chains.

The Movers: Speculation High, Reality Low

RAVE leading gains with 266.3% is a yellow warning light flashing. STABLE with 14.7% is more understandable (stablecoins receive defensive buys in fear). VVV with 8.4% still maintains proportion. On the negative side, DOT and CHZ fall 4%+ — altcoins accumulate pressure while Bitcoin fluctuates.

Stablecoin Rates

Stablecoin rates in BRL continue reflecting this week's exchange rate volatility. USDT and USDC remain stable in dollars, but in reals they track USD/BRL. This is relevant for those working with Pix and local transfers — the "price" of USDT in reais oscillates as the American currency fluctuates.

Relevant News of the Week

According to CoinDesk reporting, Strategy began aggressively accumulating bitcoin through STRC. This is typical smart money behavior in extreme fear conditions. When VCs and big players buy in panic, the historical market reacts with a bounce. But — and it's a big but — timing remains uncertain. It could happen tomorrow or in three weeks.

South Korea reporting that API trading represents 30% of volume is a sign of sophistication in the region, but also concentration of risk in automation. When algorithms turn the other way, they move a lot of volume quickly.

Bridge attacks continue — Hyperbridge and WLFI generating noise in sentiment. These technical failures reinforce extreme fear (12/100 in the index), but don't directly affect BTC and ETH mainnet.

What to Watch Tomorrow

• Bitcoin support at $70,757 — if it breaks, test of $65,970 is likely
• RSI in overbought (66+) signaling possible pause or correction in 24-48 hours
• Volume in cryptocurrencies — if it enters with force in the coming days, confirms institutional buying or signals exit
• News on inflation/oil — any escalation of tensions in Iran affects global risk-on
• Movement in altcoins — if RAVE continues surging (speculative froth), market is near correction
• ETPs continuing with inflows ($1.1B this week) — indicative of institutional demand still present

Bitcoin is like a boxer cornered in the ring: without space to counter-attack aggressively, but also without having taken the knockout blow. RSI at 66 and extreme fear for 46 consecutive days create classic bounce setup. The question is not IF there will be a correction rally, but WHEN and how much. Support below 71k has been tested. If it holds until tomorrow, sentiment shift could come fast.