Crypto Radar — Monday, 05/25/2026
Bitcoin opens this Monday at $77,303, accumulating modest +0.3% over the last seven days. The +1.6% upward move in the last 24 hours is more of a technical reaction than a sentiment shift — the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at 30, fear territory for weeks.
BTC dominance reached 60.1%, the highest level of the year. When altcoins plunge more than Bitcoin, it usually means capital is fleeing to "safer" assets within the crypto universe itself. Ethereum suffers even more, trading at $2,109 with RSI at 24 — extreme oversold territory.
The global market of $2.58 trillion lost momentum after tensions in the Strait of Hormuz shook the Bitcoin "safe haven" thesis. As we reported last week, the crash to $76K definitively buried the narrative that crypto would be a refuge in times of war.
Bitcoin: Bearish Structure, But RSI Signals Relief
Bitcoin is in a delicate technical position. With SMA50 4.3% below SMA200, the moving average structure confirms a medium-term bearish trend. The price oscillates between SMA20 ($78,842) and SMA50 ($76,941), with no clear direction.
But there are signs that the worst may have passed. RSI of 33 indicates oversold conditions — historically, readings below 35 precede technical bounces in 68% of cases since 2022. The $75,483 support remains solid for 15 days.
Análise Técnica — Bitcoin
The resistance at $77,546 was broken yesterday, but without significant volume. If BTC can hold above SMA20, we could see movement toward $82,146, the 30-day resistance. The most likely scenario is sideways consolidation between $76K-78K in the next sessions.
Ethereum: Extreme Oversold May Generate Reaction
Ethereum is in a more critical situation than Bitcoin. RSI of 24 is the lowest level since March 2023. Price below all major moving averages, with SMA50 10.9% below SMA200 — declared bear market for ETH.
According to Vitalik Buterin, the Ethereum Foundation will streamline operations and sell less ETH, focusing on "CROPS" (cross-chain protocols). Strategic shift that could reduce institutional selling pressure, but the market hasn't priced in this information yet.
Análise Técnica — Ethereum
Critical support at $2,064 has been tested three times in the last two weeks. If it breaks, the next floor is at $1,850. Optimistic scenario: technical bounce to $2,370 if RSI forms a bullish divergence.
Day's Movement: TIA Leads Altcoin Rally
Celestia (TIA) surges +18.8%, followed by Worldcoin (WLD) with +17.7% and NEAR Protocol with +15.8%. According to CoinDesk, NEAR benefits from increased cross-chain product activity, continuing the 15% rally that started last week.
On the downside, obscure tokens like VVV (-8.0%) and 币安人生 (-3.7%) lead losses. Typical bear market pattern: solid projects rise slowly, shitcoins plummet fast.
Stablecoin Quotes
Macro: PCE and Employment Data Test Fed Cuts
This week brings critical data: PCE, jobless claims, and real estate sector. Market bets 72% chance of 25bp cut in June, but better-than-expected numbers could quickly tank these expectations.
BTC-S&P 500 correlation remains high (0.81), so any surprise in macro data will hit crypto directly. Strong dollar continues pressuring risk assets — DXY above 105 is poison for Bitcoin.
Regulation: Brazil Criminalizes Synthetic Dollar
As we reported on ON3X, Bill 4,308 wants to criminalize synthetic stablecoins like Ethena's USDe. Move that could accelerate adoption of the Digital Real (Drex) when officially launched in 2027.
Indonesia blocked Polymarket by classifying it as "disguised gambling". Global trend of regulatory hardening that could affect sentiment in the coming months.
Read also on ON3X: "Brazil Will Criminalize the Synthetic Dollar: Why Article 13-A of Bill 4.308 Bans Ethena's USDe" to understand the full regulatory impact.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Bitcoin: Sustained breakout of $77,546 or return to $75,483 support
- Ethereum: RSI forming bullish divergence or breaking $2,064 support
- Macro: U.S. market opening and possible Fed guidance
- Volume: Confirmation of buying interest above $70B daily
- BTC Dominance: If surpassing 61%, signal of flight-to-quality within crypto
Disclaimer: Crypto Radar is published daily by the ON3X team for informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment recommendation. Do your own research before making financial decisions.