February 28, 2026: The Day Everything Changed
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military operation against Iran, described as one of the most comprehensive attack packages ever carried out against Iranian military and energy infrastructure. The bombings targeted oil depots in Tehran, the Kuhak facilities, Aghdasiyeh storage, the Shahran refinery, and the Fardis storage site in Alborz province.
Within hours, the conflict shifted from a diplomatic tension to the largest geopolitical shock in financial markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The impact on energy, commodities, and cryptocurrency markets was immediate and brutal.
Oil Surges 30% in a Single Day
The oil market reacted violently. On March 8, the price per barrel surged approximately 30% in a single session, reaching $120 per barrel. Brent crude exceeded $119, and since the start of hostilities, oil has risen by more than 50%.
The main catalyst was the announcement made on March 3 by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows. The scale of the disruption is staggering:
- 150 oil tankers stranded in the region
- 140 million barrels of oil trapped in the Gulf
- Potential loss of 15 million barrels per day in global supply
- 60% drop in Iraqi production, directly affected by the blockade
The impact was not limited to crude oil. Diesel, gasoline, and all energy derivatives followed the surge, increasing transportation, logistics, and industrial production costs globally. Rising energy prices accelerated the search for alternatives, from electric vehicles in Europe and South Korea to a surge in EV interest in the United States.
Bitcoin Crashes and Then Recovers: The Crypto Roller Coaster
The cryptocurrency market felt the impact heavily. Bitcoin, which had reached $74,000 the week before the attacks, dropped to around $60,000—a decline of approximately 19% in just a few days. Altcoins suffered even more:
- Ethereum fell below $2,000
- Solana dropped to $84
- XRP declined to $1.34
Within 24 hours, $364.4 million in positions were liquidated, affecting 94,058 traders. On Hyperliquid, tokenized oil contracts saw $40 million in liquidations, with $36.9 million coming from short positions that were destroyed by rising oil prices. Crypto sell volume reached $1.8 billion in a single hour on Saturday, when traditional markets were closed and crypto remained the only liquidity channel.
However, the recovery came just as quickly. When Donald Trump declared on March 9 that the operation was “well ahead of schedule,” oil dropped from $116 to $85 within hours, and Bitcoin surged back above $70,500 during Asian trading on March 10.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Who Won as a Safe Haven?
The conflict reignited the long-standing debate: is Bitcoin truly “digital gold”? Data from February and March 2026 tells a nuanced story.
Gold behaved exactly as expected for a safe-haven asset. It reached a peak of $5,626.80 per ounce shortly after the attacks, absorbing $16 billion in ETF inflows at the start of 2026. Institutional investors rushed to precious metals as a first line of defense against uncertainty.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, initially behaved like a risk asset. Its drop to $60,000 followed a broader market sell-off. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net outflows in February alone, the worst month since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024. BlackRock even transferred $181 million in Bitcoin and Ether to Coinbase during the downturn.
However, the story changes over the medium term. After positions normalized, Bitcoin recovered strongly. MicroStrategy took advantage of the dip to acquire 3,015 BTC between February 23 and March 1. Negative funding rates indicated an oversold market, and once panic subsided, buyers returned aggressively.
Analysts conclude that Bitcoin serves both roles depending on the time horizon. In the short term, it is liquidity-sensitive and sells off alongside risk assets. In the medium and long term, it recovers and acts as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation—especially relevant when rising energy prices drive global inflation.
The Diesel Factor: Why This Matters for the Real Economy
While the crypto market debates whether Bitcoin is a hedge or a risk asset, the most tangible impact of the conflict lies in energy prices. Diesel, which powers global logistics (trucks, ships, trains), is directly affected by rising crude oil prices.
With oil above $100 for prolonged periods, cascading effects are inevitable: higher freight costs, rising food prices, widespread inflationary pressure, and consequently, a lower likelihood of interest rate cuts by central banks. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March was just 2.4% even before the attacks.
Jake Ostrovskis from Wintermute summarized it well:
“Oil movement matters more for crypto than geopolitics itself.”
Sustained oil above $80 eliminates the possibility of rate cuts, and without rate cuts, risk assets like crypto have less fuel to rise.
Trump Signals Deal and Bitcoin Reacts
In the latest turn of events, on March 30, President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is in “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime” in Iran to end military operations. Trump demanded the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but threatened to destroy Iranian energy and civilian infrastructure if negotiations fail.
Bitcoin responded positively, trading again above $71,000. The market interpreted the statement as a signal that a ceasefire may be near, easing pressure on energy prices and, consequently, inflation and monetary policy.
Earlier, on March 25, the U.S. had proposed a 15-point peace plan, which pushed oil below $100 and stabilized Bitcoin above $71,000. The correlation between diplomacy and crypto markets became evident: each sign of peace acts as a bullish catalyst, while escalation triggers sell-offs.
Iran and Its Crypto Reserves: An Overlooked Detail
One less-discussed aspect of the conflict is the role of cryptocurrencies within Iran itself. According to Chainalysis, Iran’s crypto ecosystem processed over $7.8 billion in 2025, with around 75 active exchanges in the country. Iran accounted for approximately 4.5% of global Bitcoin mining hashrate, using government-subsidized energy to mine BTC, which was then sold to the central bank to finance imports outside the dollar system.
With military strikes damaging parts of Iran’s energy infrastructure, this mining operation was severely impacted. However, the most revealing data lies in citizen behavior: during the internet blackout in January 2026, there was a surge in withdrawals from Iranian exchanges to personal Bitcoin wallets. While the state uses stablecoins for foreign trade settlement, ordinary citizens are accumulating Bitcoin as a censorship-resistant asset in an authoritarian and volatile environment.
What to Expect Going Forward
The U.S.–Iran conflict has exposed Bitcoin’s multiple facets in wartime scenarios. It is neither purely a risk asset nor purely a hedge—it is both, depending on timing and context.
For crypto investors, the scenarios are clear:
- If a peace agreement is reached: oil falls, inflation pressure decreases, probability of rate cuts increases, and risk assets like crypto benefit (bullish scenario).
- If the conflict escalates: oil rises again, energy costs increase, inflation persists, rates remain high, and crypto faces short-term selling pressure (bearish short-term, but recovery as an inflation hedge in the medium term).
- If Hormuz remains closed: prolonged global energy crisis, possible recession, but Bitcoin may emerge as an alternative for populations under sanctions and capital controls (mixed scenario).
The only consensus is that in an increasingly unstable world, Bitcoin is solidifying its role as a relevant player in the global geopolitical landscape—whether as a tool to bypass sanctions, an alternative store of value, or simply as the market that never closes when all others do.