Crypto Radar — March 28, 2026: Extreme Fear with BTC at US$ 68.2K

Crypto Radar — December 28, 2024

Bitcoin closes Saturday at US$ 68.207, rising 1.8% over the last 24 hours but still accumulating a 3.6% loss for the week. The market breathes easier following rumors that the USA and Iran may end the conflict in the coming weeks, but the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at 8 points — extreme fear for over 45 consecutive days.

Ethereum performs better than Bitcoin this Saturday, advancing 3.6% to US$ 2.105. The dynamic is clear: ETH is benefiting from rotation among major cryptocurrencies while BTC struggles to break important technical resistances.

Macro Context: Oil Retreats, Bitcoin Responds

The main catalyst for relief in recent hours comes from geopolitical headlines. According to CoinTelegraph, Trump declared that the USA will leave Iran "within 2 to 3 weeks", while reports indicate Iranian willingness to end the conflict. Oil plummeted from US$ 120 to near US$ 110, easing global inflationary pressures.

For the crypto market, this means two things: less flight-to-safety toward gold and dollar, and lower pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy. The DXY retreated 0.8% in the session, providing relief for risk assets.

Bitcoin: Structure Still Bearish, But RSI Neutral

Bitcoin is like a boxer who took a beating but hasn't fallen yet. The RSI at 40.8 exited the oversold zone, but the technical structure remains compromised. The SMA50 is 24% below the SMA200 — a gap we haven't seen since the 2022 bear market.

The current price of US$ 68.207 is below both the SMA20 (US$ 69.759) and the SMA50 (US$ 68.658). For the coming days, the resistance of US$ 68.791 becomes crucial. Confirmed breakout could take BTC to US$ 74.858, monthly resistance.

On the downside, weekly support at US$ 65.970 remains intact for 7 days. Break below that zone opens the way to test the US$ 62.000-64.000 region, where historical buyers typically appear.

Ethereum: Strong Relative Performance

ETH shows important signs of relative strength. With RSI at 41.8 and price trading between SMA20 (US$ 2.120) and SMA50 (US$ 2.041), the second-largest cryptocurrency is in a neutral-to-bullish position in the short term.

The key here is the US$ 2.106 resistance. Breakout above it could push ETH to US$ 2.351, monthly high. The support at US$ 1.983 remains solid, offering consistent technical foundation.

It's worth noting that ETH/BTC is close to 30-day highs, suggesting capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum — a typical movement during market recovery phases.

Market Movement

Algorand leads gains with impressive 19.1%, followed by STABLE (+16.7%) and NIGHT (+10.3%). The movement in ALGO may be related to growing interest in blockchains focused on sustainability and governance.

On the downside, SIREN plummets 67% — a movement that requires investigation into the project's specific fundamentals. RIVER and HYPE register smaller declines, within normal altcoin volatility.

Stablecoin Rates

Brazilian Scenario: Federal Police Seizes R$ 934 Million

Brazil's Federal Police seized R$ 934 million in an operation against money laundering via cryptocurrencies. Also read our complete coverage on ON3X about how this operation may impact the national market.

For Brazilian investors, the moment calls for extra caution with compliance. Drex regulation advances and operations like this show that authorities are keeping an eye on the sector.

What to Watch Tomorrow

• Breakout or rejection of Bitcoin's US$ 68.791 resistance
• ETH/BTC performance — continuation of rotation?
• USA-Iran geopolitical developments and oil impact
• Sunday trading volume — traditionally low
• DXY movement at Asian opening

With Fear & Greed at 8 points for over a month, any positive catalyst can generate a significant bounce. The technical setup is not aligned for a bull run, but extreme oversold conditions have historically preceded 15-25% relief bounces.