Bitcoin maintains the technical stalemate on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, at US$ 68,014 after a slight gain of 0.6% in the last 24 hours. What stands out is not the sideways movement, but rather the persistence of extreme fear in the market — index at 8/100 for weeks — contrasting with signals that the Middle East conflict may be coming to an end.
The geopolitical context has changed drastically since yesterday. Trump declared that the US will exit Iran in 2 to 3 weeks, while reports indicate Iranian willingness to end the conflict. Oil plummeted, stocks rose, but Bitcoin has not yet fully processed this narrative shift.
Market Overview
Total cryptocurrency capitalization is at US$ 2.34 trillion, with 24-hour volume relatively stable at US$ 98.4 billion. Bitcoin maintains solid dominance of 58.1%, indicating that money has not yet massively migrated to altcoins — typical of consolidation markets.
Ethereum shows more relative strength with a 2.2% gain to US$ 2,099, recovering part of the weekly losses of -2.8%. Its dominance of 10.8% remains stable, suggesting that ETH is managing to hold better against selling pressure.
Bitcoin: Bearish Structure, But Neutral RSI
Bitcoin is locked between moving averages. Price below SMA20 (US$ 69,749) and SMA50 (US$ 68,654), but the RSI of 40.30 does not indicate extreme oversold. The bearish structure is clear: SMA50 is 24% below SMA200, confirming medium-term downtrend.
Weekly support at US$ 65,970 has not been tested since the last drop, while resistance at US$ 68,791 holds for now. If geopolitical relief is confirmed, this level will be the first test to validate a reversal.
Stable volume indicates absence of final capitulation. Smart money is not panic selling, but neither is it buying aggressively yet.
Ethereum: More Defensive Position
ETH shows superior technical resilience. Price trading between SMA20 and SMA50, setting up a mixed trend rather than Bitcoin's clear bearish stance. RSI at 41.30 also indicates neutral conditions, not oversold.
The 32.9% difference between SMA50 and SMA200 shows that Ethereum is also in a long-term bearish structure, but recent price action suggests greater capacity to absorb selling pressure.
Support at US$ 1,983 has not been tested in recent weeks, creating an interesting technical cushion if the market decides to test lows again.
Top Gainers and Losers
ALGO surges 19% leading gains, followed by STABLE (+17%) and NIGHT (+9.6%). Isolated movements that do not reflect the general market sentiment, typical of sideways markets where capital rotates between specific projects.
On the downside, SIREN crashes brutally -69.6%, probably due to specific project news. RIVER (-4.2%) and HYPE (-2.8%) complete the largest losses, relatively controlled losses that do not indicate generalized sell-off.
Stablecoin Rates
Macro and Geopolitical Context
The change in tone regarding the Middle East conflict is the catalyst that the crypto market has been waiting for. With oil pulling back and stocks rising, inflationary pressure is removed that kept the Fed hawkish. Bitcoin as a safe haven during the crisis can now resume characteristics of a risk-on asset.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is entering the public bonds market for the first time, with a Moody's rating — relevant institutional development for long-term adoption, even in a context of sideways prices.
Brazilian Perspective
For Brazilian investors, the moment calls for operational caution but structural optimism. With USD/BRL maintaining elevated levels, dollar purchases continue expensive, but Bitcoin's eventual recovery will benefit doubly: asset appreciation + eventual dollar weakening.
Also read on ON3X the analysis on how the Federal Police seized R$ 934 million in an operation against money laundering with crypto — recalling the importance of compliance for exchanges and local investors.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Confirmation that the Iran-Israel conflict is really cooling down
- If Bitcoin can break through resistance at US$ 68,791 with volume
- Oil behavior — sustained decline would validate risk-on thesis
- US inflation data could impact Fed perspectives
- Ethereum maintaining relative strength above US$ 2,080
Disclaimer: Crypto Radar is published daily by the ON3X team for informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment recommendation. Conduct your own research before making financial decisions.