Crypto Radar — Monday, 05/04/2026
Bitcoin breaks the US$ 80,000 resistance for the second time in a week, this time with more conviction. Monday started with BTC trading at US$ 80,247, up 1.9% in the last 24 hours and accumulating 4.5% for the week. The move is happening amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which traditionally push investors toward risk assets — but this time, Bitcoin is showing resilience.
The macro scenario remains challenging. With the Fear & Greed Index at 40 points (Fear), the market still does not show euphoria — which can be positive for the sustainability of the current rally. Bitcoin's dominance rose to 60.6%, indicating that smart money is preferring the relative safety of the largest cryptocurrency in an environment of uncertainty.
Ethereum is following the movement with lower intensity, trading at US$ 2,360 (+1.7% in 24h), but still faces significant technical pressure. The performance difference suggests we are in a moment of "flight to quality" within the crypto market itself.
Bitcoin: Testing Resistance with Hot RSI
Bitcoin's technical analysis reveals a mixed scenario that requires caution. The RSI(14) reached 68.3 points, approaching the overbought zone (70+). Historically, when Bitcoin tests 80k with RSI at this level, corrections of 5-8% are common in the following days.
The price broke through the 20-period moving average (SMA20 at US$ 77,025) and the 50-period (US$ 72,800), signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, the SMA200 at US$ 83,544 continues to act as major resistance, creating a still bearish technical structure — the SMA50 is 12.9% below the SMA200.
Análise Técnica — Bitcoin
Supports are well defined: US$ 75,775 in the 7-day window and US$ 68,864 in the monthly. A break of the weekly support would invalidate the immediate bullish scenario. Increasing volume indicates that volatility should increase — and this can happen either way.
Ethereum: Dangerous Neutrality
Ethereum presents more balanced technical signals, but not necessarily better ones. With RSI at 55.7 points (neutral zone), ETH has room to move both up and down without generating overbought or oversold signals.
The moving average structure is concerning: SMA50 is 18.1% below the SMA200, a larger divergence than Bitcoin's. This suggests that Ethereum has not yet exited the structural downtrend, even with price operating above short-term moving averages.
Análise Técnica — Ethereum
The test of resistance at US$ 2,361 will be decisive. A rejection here can take ETH back to support at US$ 2,253. For the bullish scenario to consolidate, Ethereum needs to break US$ 2,421 with strong volume.
Movers Highlight
SKYAI leads the gains with impressive +52.5%, reflecting renewed hype in artificial intelligence projects. DASH (+29.1%) and LUNC (+20.2%) complete the top 3, showing that lower-cap altcoins still find speculative interest.
On the negative side, M (-8.7%) leads the losses, followed by H (-2.7%) and PAXG (-2.4%). The Pax Gold decline stands out given the current geopolitical tension — typically, digital gold would benefit from this scenario.
Stablecoin Rates
Macro Context and Market Impact
International headlines reveal a market in transition. According to CoinDesk, GameStop is moving US$ 55.5 billion to acquire eBay, putting its US$ 368 million Bitcoin reserve at the center of attention. This type of institutional news helps sustain prices even during moments of technical uncertainty.
Tension in Iran, mentioned by CoinTelegraph, is creating volatility in risk assets, but Bitcoin is behaving more like digital gold than a tech stock. This is positive for the "store of value" narrative that the market needs to justify prices above 80k.
On the Brazilian regulatory front, Central Bank Resolution 521 went into effect today, impacting self-custody wallets. As we covered at ON3X, Annex II-A is already generating constitutional debate — a development that could affect crypto adoption in Brazil.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- BTC behavior at 80k resistance — sustention or rejection will set the tone for the week
- Trading volume: if it decreases with high prices, sign of distribution
- Bitcoin RSI: any movement above 70 will require extra caution
- Ethereum needs to break US$ 2,400 to confirm relative strength
- Developments regarding Resolution 521 and impact on the Brazilian market
Disclaimer: Crypto Radar is published daily by the ON3X team for informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before making financial decisions.