Crypto Radar — May 03, 2026
Sunday of consolidation in the crypto market. Bitcoin holds US$ 78.764 with zero change in the last 24 hours, while the global market moves US$ 89 billion in volume. The neutral Fear & Greed Index at 47 points reflects trader indecision before a week that could determine whether May will be a month of gains or correction.
Bitcoin's 60.4% dominance shows impressive relative strength. While altcoins like ARB (-5.4%) and SKYAI (-7.2%) plummet, BTC maintains its position. Ethereum retreats modestly 0.2% to US$ 2.322, but its 10.7% dominance indicates that money is migrating to digital gold.
Bitcoin: RSI in Danger Zone
Bitcoin's RSI of 70.10 places it in officially overbought territory. Historically, when RSI exceeds 70 with price near important resistances, corrections of 8-12% are common in the next 5-7 days.
The technical structure reveals interesting contradictions. Bitcoin is above the 20 and 50-day moving averages (US$ 76.733 and US$ 72.654 respectively), confirming short-term uptrend. But the SMA200 at US$ 83.685 still acts as a psychological resistance — 13.2% above the current price.
Análise Técnica — Bitcoin
Critical support at US$ 75.775 (7-day low). Breakthrough here opens the path to US$ 72.654 of the SMA50. Immediate resistance at US$ 78.796 — the weekly high that the market has been unable to overcome for 48 hours.
Ethereum: Worrying Relative Strength
Ethereum shows more evident signs of weakness. Neutral RSI at 57 points, but unable to keep up with Bitcoin's strength. The difference in accumulated 7-day performance (BTC +0.4% vs ETH -1.8%) suggests capital rotation favoring Bitcoin.
Technically, ETH is trapped between the SMA20 at US$ 2.323 (resistance) and 7-day support at US$ 2.253. Narrow range of only US$ 70 indicates indecision before directional movement.
Análise Técnica — Ethereum
The SMA200 at US$ 2.717 remains 18.4% above price — a larger distance than Bitcoin, indicating a weaker long-term structure. Breakthrough of US$ 2.253 could accelerate correction to the SMA50 at US$ 2.216.
Today's Highlights: Altcoins in Divergence
B leads with a 17.1% explosion, followed by SIREN (+11.1%) and H (+5.9%). Gains concentrated in lower market cap projects, a typical pattern for weekends with low institutional volume.
On the negative side, SKYAI (-7.2%) and ARB (-5.4%) lead losses. Arbitrum especially concerning, considering that Layer-2s were among April's favorites.
Stablecoin Rates
Macro Context: American Elections on Radar
According to CoinDesk research, crypto is at the bottom of American voters' priorities for 2026. More revealing: Americans still prefer traditional banks over crypto for financial access. Data that explains current institutional caution.
Distrust regarding crypto oversight by a Trump administration (according to CoinDesk poll) adds political volatility to the scenario. For Brazilian investors, this means greater dependence on local factors such as Drex regulation and Pix evolution.
This week's Consensus 2026 could bring important catalysts. Events like this historically generate volatility — both positive and negative — depending on announcements from major players.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Bitcoin RSI: If it stays above 70 for another 24 hours, correction becomes more likely
- Global volume: Below US$ 80 billion indicates lack of conviction
- BTC dominance: Breakthrough above 61% would signal flight to safety
- ETH support: US$ 2.253 is the line in the sand to maintain uptrend structure
- Consensus 2026: First panels could move the market
Also read on ON3X: Crypto Radar — May 02, 2026: BTC Rises to US$ 78.7K
Disclaimer: Crypto Radar is published daily by the ON3X team exclusively for informational purposes. This content does not constitute investment recommendation. Conduct your own research before making financial decisions.