Bitcoin Tests $78K Resistance on Low Volume Saturday
The crypto market closes the first week of May with Bitcoin near the top of the current trading range. At US$ 78.747 this Saturday, 05/02/2026, BTC accumulates a 1.6% gain over the last 7 days, but still faces important technical resistance at US$ 78.733.
The scenario remains mixed. On one hand, Bitcoin maintains itself above the 20 and 50 period moving averages, signaling positive short-term momentum. On the other, the long-term structure is still bearish with the SMA50 13.5% below the SMA200 — a divergence that does not resolve quickly.
What stands out is the combination of Fear & Greed Index at 39 points (fear) with Bitcoin dominance at 60.4%. Historically, when BTC concentrates more than 60% of total market cap during periods of fear, it typically precedes more significant moves — either up or down.
Market Overview
The global market cap of US$ 2.61 trillion reflects stability, but the US$ 91.34 billion volume in 24h is below the average of recent months. Saturdays traditionally show lower liquidity, but this level suggests institutional caution.
Ethereum at US$ 2.326 (+1.5% in 24h) shows slightly better performance than Bitcoin, but faces a similar technical scenario. The 10.7% dominance keeps ETH as the second asset, but far from the 15-17% observed during altcoin season periods.
Bitcoin: RSI Warming in Neutral Territory
The RSI at 60.60 points indicates that Bitcoin is exiting the oversold zone of recent weeks, but still far from overbought territory (above 70). This level typically precedes both continuation of the uptrend and technical corrections.
Análise Técnica — Bitcoin
The immediate 7-day support is at US$ 75.775, while resistance remains at US$ 78.733 — exactly where the current price finds difficulty breaking through. A convincing break above this level could open space for US$ 82-84K.
The 200-period moving average at US$ 83.845 acts as important psychological resistance. While the price remains below this mark, the long-term trend remains questionable.
Ethereum: Building Technical Base
With neutral RSI at 47.50 points, Ethereum shows healthy consolidation after April's declines. The current price of US$ 2.326 coincides exactly with the SMA20, suggesting that this moving average is serving as dynamic support.
Análise Técnica — Ethereum
The resistance at US$ 2.370 remains as the immediate target, but the real test will be at US$ 2.421 — the 30-day high. A convincing move above this level could reactivate interest in larger-cap altcoins.
Today's Highlights: SKYAI Surges 40%
The altcoin market shows concentrated movement. SKYAI leads gains with impressive +40%, followed by LUNC (+21.3%) and 币安人生 (+11.4%). Moves of this magnitude on Saturday usually indicate specific news or manipulation in low-liquidity assets.
On the downside, losses are modest. SIREN (-2.7%), DEXE (-1.9%) and PI (-1.4%) show that there are no widespread selloffs in the market.
Stablecoin Rates
Regulatory Scenario: Brazil in Focus
Central Bank Resolution 561 continues to generate discussion in the Brazilian market. According to ON3X reporting, the measure prohibited stablecoins in international payments, but kept other crypto operations permitted. The real impact is still being digested by local players.
Globally, the crypto sector supports the CLARITY Act in the US, while A16z positions itself alongside the CFTC on prediction market issues. These regulatory movements can influence medium-term sentiment.
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Breakout or rejection of Bitcoin's US$ 78.733 resistance
- Sunday volume — if it stays above US$ 80B, it indicates genuine interest
- ETH behavior in the SMA20 region (US$ 2.326)
- Developments in Brazilian stablecoin regulation
- Bitcoin RSI — if it exceeds 65 points, it may signal acceleration of the rally
Disclaimer: Crypto Radar is published daily by the ON3X team for informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment recommendation. Do your own research before making financial decisions.